Based on projections from 21 leading housing economists, banks, brokerages, and research institutions tracked by ResiClub, the consensus expectation is that 30-year fixed mortgage rates will average approximately 6.18% throughout 2026.
Forecasting interest rates has always been difficult, but recent years have underscored just how unpredictable the process can be. The COVID-19 shutdowns, unprecedented fiscal stimulus, aggressive monetary intervention, and one of the fastest rate-hiking cycles in modern history caused widespread forecasting errors. In fact, economists materially underestimated mortgage rates for three consecutive years: 2022, 2023, and 2024.
That said, forecasting accuracy has improved more recently.
Heading into 2025, ResiClub tracked 17 forecasts projecting that 30-year fixed mortgage rates would average 6.33% in Q4 2025. At the time, rates were hovering near 7.03%. By year-end, however, the average rate landed at 6.23%, much closer to projections than in prior years.
How this year’s forecasts were collected
For its 2026 outlook, ResiClub compiled 21 mortgage rate forecasts, drawing from a mix of publicly released outlooks and responses from its 2026 Housing Economist Survey. Unlike prior surveys that focused on year-end estimates, respondents were asked to forecast the full 2026 calendar-year average, offering a broader perspective.
While ResiClub emphasizes that rate forecasts should always be viewed with caution—unexpected labor market weakness or macro shocks could push rates lower than expected—they still offer valuable insight into how economic models currently assess future conditions.
2026 mortgage rate forecasts (highest to lowest)
Hunter Housing Economics
Forecast: 6.6% average
The firm notes that a potential shift in Federal Reserve leadership could result in looser monetary policy, though the magnitude of any decline would depend on inflation expectations, federal deficits, and GDP growth.
Capital Economics
Forecast: 6.50% by Q4 2026
Mortgage Bankers Association
Forecast: 6.4% average
PNC Bank
Forecast: 6.40% in both 2026 and 2027
Compass
Forecast: 6.30% average
Realtor.com
Forecast: 6.30% average
Economists cite the ongoing “rate lock-in” effect, noting that roughly 80% of homeowners still hold mortgages below 6%, limiting turnover except for life-driven moves like job changes or family needs.
Redfin
Forecast: 6.30% average
Redfin expects Fed rate cuts in 2026 but believes inflation risks and bond-market dynamics will prevent sustained dips below 6%.
Windermere Real Estate
Forecast: 6.25% average
Moody’s
Forecast: 6.23% average
Cotality
Forecast: 6.20% average
Cotality expects more normalized housing conditions, modest home-price growth, and gradual affordability improvement—though insurance costs, taxes, and regional disparities remain obstacles.
Yale School of Management
Forecast: 6.20% average; 6.05% by Q4
Wells Fargo
Forecast: 6.18% average
National Association of Home Builders
Forecast: 6.17% average
Bright MLS
Forecast: 6.15% by year-end
Zonda
Forecast: 6.10% average
Reventure App
Forecast: 6.10% average
National Association of Realtors
Forecast: 6.00% average
NAR expects modest rate improvement that slightly enhances affordability, though not a dramatic decline.
Miami Realtors
Forecast: 6.00% average
Their outlook suggests mortgage rates will largely move sideways, keeping sales and prices in modest single-digit growth territory.
Fannie Mae
Forecast: 6.00% in 2026; 5.9% in 2027
Morgan Stanley
Forecast: 5.75% by late 2026
Analysts note that even a 50-basis-point decline would only meaningfully benefit a small percentage of borrowers, leaving refinancing activity muted.
Erdmann Housing Tracker
Forecast: 5.75% average; potentially 5.22% by year-end
Key takeaways
Average 2026 forecast: 6.18%, nearly identical to today’s prevailing rate
Highest forecast: 6.60%
Lowest forecast: 5.75%
The U.S. housing market has experienced constrained turnover for several years, driven largely by affordability challenges and the mortgage rate lock-in effect. Many homeowners are unwilling—or unable—to trade low existing mortgage payments for higher monthly costs.
If rates fall more than expected, even modestly, existing-home sales activity could improve.
What could change the outlook?
A meaningful economic slowdown remains the biggest wildcard. Rising unemployment or sharper-than-expected economic deterioration could push Treasury yields—and mortgage rates—lower than current forecasts assume.
Another factor is the mortgage spread, or the gap between 10-year Treasury yields and mortgage rates. If this spread continues to normalize toward its long-term average, mortgage rates could decline even without major moves in Treasury yields.
Final thought
Mortgage rate forecasts are best viewed as directional guideposts, not guarantees. Over the past five years alone, economists have had to contend with a pandemic, historic inflation, and an aggressive tightening cycle that few models anticipated.
The takeaway? Forecasts are useful—but humility is warranted. Even the most sophisticated projections can’t account for every shock the economy may face.
As always if you are looking for local market guidance, feel free to reach out direct. 407-745-8317
Melanie Miller
Broker Associate/Team Lead
Certified Luxury Home Marketing Specialist & CDRE®
Selling Central – PREMIUM PROPERTIES
407-745-8317
SellingCentral.com
Melanie@SellingCentral.com